Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn.

Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-quarter pressure and scrutiny is no joke, and probably the biggest downside of going public.

I'm bullish on AI, but kind of bearish on any specific AI company. None of the initial big dotcom companies like AOL or Yahoo survived at the scale they briefly had.

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1]

[1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this.

Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very opaque, so it's not totally clear to me how I would avoid this if I wanted to.

If OpenAI and Anthropic eventually become public companies with trillion-dollar valuations, it will be interesting to see if their company ethos remains the same. With that much purchasing power, it's very tempting to gobble up competitors and raise prices.

It’s hard to imagine there’s much upside left for retail to capture at this point.

How much bigger can they get when they’re already 1/5 the size of the world’s largest company?

It seems like the chance of retail making a killing on these IPOs like they did with Amazon (+2200x since IPO) or Nvidia are slim. The entire S&P is $60T.

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, we're likely to see 3 of the largest IPOs ever (by a wide margin) this year. Will existing institutional investors trim other positions to allocate a lot of capital for these mega listings or is this not a concern?

This is the first time I've seen a Public, Confidential S-1 filing.

I think this IPO will be the real test of whether the concept of a Public Benefit Corporation actually holds up in practice. Don't mess this up, Anthropic.

Where will it be listed? I am considering selling all my index ETFs in those markets until the this blows over.

AI may be the first major technology cycle where access to capital and power and physical infrastructure matters almost as much as the software itself

why did they raise 3 days ago? What's the benefit of doing this instead of going public right away? If it's just cash to pay for GPUs, can't they issue bonds or something?

I know market will buy it, but where would it find the money to fund the stock purchase?

Would it crash other company stocks so that investors start selling and purchasing Anthropic shares, or how does it work?

I'm curious to know if they generated this with Claude and what the prompt looked like.

Why is anyone blaming the company management for 'selling high'.

AI real expectations are about as frothy as they'll ever be.

The latest models have legitimately taken senior coders from execution to agentic babysitting mode - something that was only a dream until last time.

There's a rumor of a $500M MONTHLY Anthropic Bill - that is the equivalent total compensation of 10-15 THOUSAND senior ICs (L5, L6). Imagine what kind of company can spend that amount and pay their staff and somehow 'see value'

The indexing argument is overblown. How many companies of the S&P could the average commenter here name? My guess is - charitably - 30. Yes, weighting, etc. but every indexer here is buying in hundreds of companies they have no idea about the business of, and all of a sudden some percentage goes to a tech company they know about and they want to comment.

Let these people run their victory lap!

Expect the token price to correlate with the stock price.

Of course that fundraise was the last one: [0], everyone getting ready to dump their pre-IPO shares on to you as China catches up with their open models.

Better to do it now than to wait a day longer and the tokens are not getting any cheaper here.

Obviously OpenAI will file for IPO certainly this month, or even this week in response both SpaceX, and Anthropic.

Then AGI will then have been achieved externally.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48313390

IPO incoming. Going to be interesting watching how long the PBC mission holds up once there are shareholders to answer to every quarter

Can someone help me understand how its "confidential" if they blog about it? Perhaps they simply mean the details of the S-1 are confidential for now?

I need to pull all my retirement out of the market for the next few months. I don't want to be private equity's bagholder

Are dates set for this one or Space X? Who will “ring the bell first”, so to speak. I think the sequencing here matters more than it should.

What does it mean to submit confidentially – what's the process there? I assume it be made public when approved by the SEC?

Haha I read the headline as "confidently submits", thought it was a dig at OpenAI's CFO.

Whelp, looks like I'm going to be following Warren Buffett and moving my investments to all cash.

Who’s going out of the gate first, Anthropic or Space X. Sequencing probably matters more than it should.

How do I keep my 401k from investing in AI stocks...

As a layman external observer, this seems a bit rushed to me? I know there's a race amongst the frontier AI labs, but I don't quite understand the rush (apparently there is still a lot of money to go around), so as some comments imply, it does look like "our financials look good right now let's strike while the iron is hot!"

I do think Anthropic's business has very good long-term prospects, but the current run rates are not sustainable and they know it which is why they, more than OpenAI, are under higher pressure to IPO. Some things to consider:

1. This was surprising to me, but enterprises Claude Code (and Codex) plans are billed on token usage at API rates. I was expecting lower rates for volume subscriptions. This explains their huge spike in ARR, but I expect competitive pressures will soon come into play, especially as companies start to get more budget-conscious. Specifically...

2. Tokenmaxxing is finally encountering the inevitable pushback. My theory is it was an effort to incentivize devs to experiment and figure out ways to get productive with AI by throwing money at the problem, which was always going to be a short-term dynamic. Companies are going to be much more intentional about token budgets (especially as Anthropic is apparently now asking for volume commitments for enterprise plans.) Smaller, open-weight models may start looking much more attractive.

3. I've said before but I think Anthropic severely underestimated their own popularity and corresponding demand for compute and has to enter costly deals to acquire capacity to keep Claude's 9's above GitHub's, even as they alienated customers with short term tweaks to optimize usage. These deals will eat into their margins and Claude's problems likely pushed customers to competitors, the effects of which could take time to be more evident.

So maybe whatever looks good on their financials right now is time-limited, and the current boost may start petering out at some point, which may influence when OpenAI files their own IPO.

When will the S-1 filings be made public?

Getting ready for the wework deja-vu when this S-1 becomes public.

Got to dump this on everyone's SP 500 index fund before people figure out that there is a 95% drop in token usage when they are metered.

Bubbles can be great for short-term returns.

I just hope pension funds and other long-term investors don’t end up buying into them.

who else thinks this will be a "buy the rumor, sell the news thing" ?

sell the dream at the peak, then sell the explanation on the way down

Billionaires and angel investors in Anthropic are panicking. Need to sell their insider stock before the bubble busts.

anthropic are so hot right now

Right in time to get rich and externalize any fallout.

“Quick, guys! We finally made a profit and our ARR is up 80x in three months. Let’s go public before any of this comes back to earth!”

of course. do it now while they have the users. in a year when everyone has laptops with 128gb+ running models locally, anthropic stands zero chance. same with openai. i dont even use openai anymore. this will be one of the biggest crashes in history.

Really seems that this entire industry has been told it will get a MASSIVE bailout. And with Fink basically confirming so means, Hillary was right? Trump is a tyrannus dictator?

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Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble.

"The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

Did mythos write the S-1? It better not have been a human given the amount of hype they are pushing.

Every post anthropic generates feels like misdirection and bad summarization using AI. There is no sense of who the audience for this post is for and includes a lot of redundant information.