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A Post-Quantum Future for Let's Encrypt (https://letsencrypt.org)

317 points by SGran 3 days ago | 165 comments | View on ycombinator

skmurphy 3 days ago |

We are truly living in a science fiction future where quantum code cracking is not a remote possibility but a near term risk we are planning for.

In Vernor Vinge's novel "A Fire Upon the Deep" one of the most valuable commodities were one time pads that are physically transported to communication nodes to enable unbreakable communication. The pads are split into three pieces that are XORed to create the actual pad to reduce risk of compromise.

BoppreH 3 days ago |

Interesting development. Merkle Tree Certificates throw away decades of cruft, but also decades of battle testing and ancillary tools. I trust the teams involved, but this will be a hell of a project.

Still better than the alternatives that would saddle us with worse performance for ~ever.

kibwen 3 days ago |

> In the common case, the entire authentication path in an MTC handshake is one signature, one public key, and one inclusion proof. That’s smaller than today’s Web PKI handshake, even though MTCs use post-quantum algorithms. [...] There is more to MTCs than size optimization. Because every certificate is part of a published Merkle tree, transparency becomes a property of issuance itself. Today’s Certificate Transparency ecosystem is bolted on after the fact: certificates are issued by CAs, then logged separately, with extra signatures riding along in the TLS handshake to attest to that logging. With MTCs, a certificate cannot exist outside the Merkle tree. Certificate Transparency is built in.

These upsides seem extremely promising, but I'm curious to know if there are any notable downsides as well.

sureglymop 3 days ago |

From the article not everything is fully clear to me yet.

What I do think though, is that Certificate Transparency as we currently have it is a fairly broken mess. Maybe partly due to RFC 6962.

The easiest task might just be validating SCTs. Easy, you just validate a signature... But no, that doesn't yet prove that the cert has been logged, that requires doing an inclusion proof!

So, someone can do inclusion and consistency proofs. If a log presents a split view that should be noticable through gossiping. But what gossiping is implemented? I think the only gossiping that happens is in the CT Google group/mailing list that probably few people know of.

Then, what if you want to actually detect malicious or misissued certs for your domain? Ideally you want to do it yourself and not use some service. Probably you just have one server and IP. Now you have to download insane amounts of data from ~60 logs and hope that someone else is checking the consistency and correctness of those logs. And you have to scrape those logs faster than they grow. Now, what if everyone running a web server did monitor? Even static logs probably couldn't withstand that.

Next, what about the log lists? One can talk all about sovereignty but really you rely on and have to trust Apple and Google with their policies and log lists if you want to meaningfully participate in this system and by extension, the encrypted web...

CT is fully deployed to production but still has many design flaws and things that are still just theoretical. It seems many of them are addressed by MTCs. I hope it can be better.

The one thing I didn't see addressed is the gossiping thing. Couldn't a malicious CA still present a split view under this model?

And if I'll have to rely on mirrors then I still can't independently monitor.

some_furry 3 days ago |

https://soatok.blog/2026/04/13/hybrid-constructions-the-post...

I wrote this in April. Many folks' misconceptions about post-quantum cryptography and "hybrid" constructions are answerable with this blog post.

raphinou 3 days ago |

I've been working on a new project using ed25519 signatures and discovered they are not quantum resistant.... I went with ed25519 due to possibility of using openssh keys. Any opinion on this choice at the light of this article and other quantum computing news?

alansaber 2 days ago |

So what's the timeline for a quantum future? 20 years? 50 years? 100? My concern is that it's primarily a materials science problem (hence, it is going to take a very long time).

LoganDark 3 days ago |

This post completely fails to address one of my biggest fears with a batched approach: waiting for a brand new certificate to be provisioned for a server that does not already have one. If batches are executed too frequently, then clients will have too big a database to maintain. If batches are executed too infrequently, then I have to wait a while to get my first certificate. Are they doing anything about this or is this just how it'll be with these new quantum-resistant certificates?

rmac 3 days ago |

in-case core-devs from LE lurk here: check out Cordon, a draft-ietf-plants-merkle-tree-certs-03 compliant CA and ACME server. its being used in a private mixnet now.

bonus points: its AOT compiled dotnet

https://github.com/maceip/cordon

emulio 3 days ago |

[flagged]

z3ratul163071 3 days ago |

no quantum threat. keep ed25519 and rsa, they are fine.

tomgag 3 days ago |

Refreshing! Not wanting to be the "told you so" guy, I've been saying this for at least 2 years now:

> Post-quantum authentication is no longer a problem the Web PKI ecosystem should defer. Long-lived keys (root certificate authorities, code-signing keys, identity systems) are particularly valuable targets, and new technology takes years to gain broad adoption, so the work has to start early.

This is a problem that I have met so many times talking with people: they parrot the "Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later is the only urgent problem, signatures can wait" mantra, and this piece of misinformation has spread so much that even AI repeats it (because it has been trained on open data, where the overwhelming sentiment has been following this trend), thereby reinforcing the problem. Ask Claude/ChatGPT/Gemini about the problem, and they will invariably tell you that signatures are less urgent because theyr are not subjective to retroactive compromise.

There are two problems here.

The first one is included by the Letsencrypt announcement: the migration path for signatures/certificates is typically longer and more complex than encryption: long-lived certificates, firmware update keys, secure boot certificates, these are all objects that are painful to migrate.

The second one, even more serious in my opinion, is: "retroactive" in respect to what? "Retroactive" presupposes you can observe the trigger (the arrival of a cryptanalytically-relevant quantum computer), but this is precisely the kind of capability an adversary keeps secret, and a quantum forgery is operationally indistinguishable from, e.g., key exfiltration, a library bug, or a classical break. You may see a forged signature, a drained wallet, a failing certificate, and have no way to attribute it to quantum cryptanalysis. The threat is dark: reactive migration against an unobservable trigger is structurally impossible.

This is not to say that Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later is a less urgent threat, but it's not so asymmetric as people have been believing so far. Glad to see things are changing!

z3ratul163071 3 days ago |

nsa and eu pushing for replacement of the reliable algorithms with unproven and very likely backdoored post-quantum algorithms, when there is no real threat at all, is highly suspicious.

lukan 3 days ago |

Better encryption sounds good to me in general, but I don't really understand, how we can make quantum safe encryption, when we don't know yet, what capabilities it will have (or if it is possible at all).

I am obviously not in the field, but as far as I know, no QC is close of working for a practical purpose(aside quantum research), but to make it practical, it needs a groundbraking brakethrough of some sort. But if a brakethrough happens, can we really estimate the consequences?